![]() ![]() Was it valuable to you? Should I do more of it? Is this work valuable? This is not my job.I have headline values for doom/victory but I don't think you should take them seriously, so they are at the bottom.Better for AI goals if humans all dead or enslaved - 60%.AIs trade much better with each other than humans - 40%.AI agents are averse to genocide/slavery - 85%. ![]() In 2040 a single AGI de facto controls the majority of world GDP - if few AIs: median 30% GDP control, if many: median - 26% GDP.If there is AI, the best agents (10x better than the closest) will be few 18%, or otherwise there will be many AI agents - 82%.Ai do all tasks a human can do using the internet (and a human using AI tools) to the standard of the best humans by 2040 - 65%.AI to run all functions of run a hedge fund in 2030 - 20%.I have built a large model around AI risk/reward.Likewise, most long term forecasts are wrong, the process is useful. All models are wrong, but some are useful. ![]()
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